-摩根大通-百度-BIDU.US-2024年4季度业绩预览：预计2024年4季度财务指标进一步恶化

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for Baidu with a target price of 85.00 HKD as of June 2025 [6][20]. Core Insights - Baidu's core advertising revenue is expected to decline by 8% year-on-year in Q4 2024, a significant increase from a 4% decline in Q3 2024. This decline is attributed to weak consumer sentiment and Baidu's own decision to lower monetization [2][16]. - The report anticipates a 15% year-on-year growth in Baidu's cloud business revenue for Q4 2024, up from 11% in Q3 2024, driven by increasing demand for GPU computing power [2][16]. - The report highlights that Baidu's operating profit margin is under pressure, with an expected core operating profit margin of 19.5% for Q4 2024, down 3.1 percentage points year-on-year due to declining high-margin advertising revenue [2][16]. - The report notes that Baidu's Q4 2024 revenue forecast is 33 billion RMB, which is 2% lower than market consensus, and the adjusted earnings per share (EPS) forecast is 14.2 RMB, 3% below market expectations [4][16]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q4 2024, Baidu's net income is projected at 33.007 billion RMB, with a year-on-year decline of 2% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 6% [4]. - The core revenue from Baidu is expected to be 26.586 billion RMB, with a year-on-year decrease of 3% [4]. - The report predicts a gross profit margin of 48.8% for Q4 2024, reflecting a decrease of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Earnings Forecast - The adjusted EPS for Q4 2024 is forecasted at 14.17 RMB, representing a 3% decline compared to market consensus [4][20]. - For the fiscal year 2024, the adjusted EPS is expected to be 72.11 RMB, down from 81.07 RMB in 2023 [20]. Market Context - Baidu's stock has underperformed the industry average by 1% and 3% over the past month and three months, respectively, due to concerns over a weak macroeconomic environment and the company's advertising business outlook [2][16]. - The report suggests that potential catalysts for Baidu in 2025 include the monetization of generative AI content and operational improvements in its "Luo Bo Kua Pao" initiative [2][16].