-瑞银证券-沪杭甬高速-0576.HK-2025瑞银大中华研讨会

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for the company with a target price of HK$5.30 [4][5][22]. Core Insights - The company forecasts a low single-digit growth in vehicle traffic for 2025, with uncertainties arising from U.S. trade restrictions [1]. - Future capital expenditure plans will focus on expansion and renovation projects within Zhejiang province and potential toll road acquisitions outside the province [2]. - The management aims to enhance its securities business through acquisitions, following a recent purchase of a 34% stake in Guodu Securities [3]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The 12-month rating is neutral, with a target price set at HK$5.30, reflecting a 2.2% expected decline from the current price of HK$5.42 [4][5][10]. Financial Projections - The company anticipates capital expenditures of approximately RMB 6 billion for 2024, focusing on projects like Yonglan Expressway and the expansion of Ningbo-Jinhua and Zhajiasu expressways [2]. - Revenue projections show a slight increase from RMB 16.965 billion in 2023 to RMB 17.348 billion in 2024, with net profit expected to be RMB 4.913 billion [8]. Business Strategy - The company plans to increase its capital expenditure on renovation projects and seek quality toll road assets with an internal rate of return (IRR) greater than 8% [2]. - Management indicated that the dividend policy will allocate over 75% of distributable profits for dividends, with no further guidance provided [1]. Market Context - The vehicle traffic growth is closely tied to import and export activities, which are at risk due to trade restrictions [2]. - The company is preparing for the implementation of new toll road management regulations, which will include details on compensation for previously free passage periods [2].