摩根士丹利：台积电-1Q25 指引与我们的预测一致，而对 AI 的评论则持正面态度；OW

Investment Rating - The investment rating for TSMC is Overweight (OW) with a price target of NT$1,388.00, indicating a 26% upside from the current price of NT$1,105.00 [4][60]. Core Insights - The 1Q25 revenue guidance is expected to decline by 5.5% quarter-over-quarter, which aligns with Morgan Stanley's estimate of a 5% decline, attributed to smartphone seasonality. This is below the consensus expectation of flat to down revenue [6][4]. - TSMC maintains a gross margin (GM) target of 53% or above, which is slightly disappointing compared to consensus expectations. The guidance for 2025 revenue growth is projected at mid-20% year-over-year in USD, slightly better than previous low-20% estimates [6][4]. - TSMC anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of mid-40% for its cloud AI semiconductor business over the next five years, reflecting strong demand in this segment [6][4]. Summary by Sections 1Q25 Guidance - Revenue is projected to decrease by 5.5% quarter-over-quarter, which is in line with Morgan Stanley's estimate but below consensus expectations [6]. - Gross margin is expected to be around 57-59%, factoring in a 1% margin dilution from the US fabrication facility [6]. Financial Performance - The fiscal year ending EPS estimates are NT$32.34 for 2023, NT$45.60 for 2024, NT$59.93 for 2025, and NT$76.86 for 2026 [4][60]. - The projected P/E ratios are 18.3 for 2023, 23.6 for 2024, 18.4 for 2025, and 14.4 for 2026 [4]. Capital Expenditure - TSMC's capital expenditure for the upcoming year is set at US$40 billion, exceeding Morgan Stanley's estimate of US$38 billion [6]. Market Outlook - The share price is expected to increase by 2-4% based on the 1Q25 guidance and positive comments regarding AI demand [6].