银行业2024年12月金融数据点评：政府债持续发力，化债扰动企业贷款

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the banking sector [1] Core Views - Government bonds have significantly driven social financing growth, with local debt resolution continuing to impact corporate loan growth [4] - Residential medium and long-term loans are showing marginal improvement, while corporate loan growth remains affected by early repayments due to debt resolution [4] - M1 and M2 growth rates have rebounded, indicating improved liquidity activation [4] - Fiscal policies and government bonds are expected to continue supporting social financing, with positive factors accumulating for bank credit issuance and asset quality [4] Social Financing - In December 2024, new social financing reached 2.86 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 924.9 billion yuan [4] - The stock of social financing grew by 8% year-on-year by the end of December, with a month-on-month increase of 0.24 percentage points [4] - Government bonds contributed significantly, with new government bonds reaching 1.76 trillion yuan, a record high and a year-on-year increase of 828.8 billion yuan [4] - Local special bond issuance exceeded 1 trillion yuan in December alone [4] Loan Data - In December, RMB loans increased by 840.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 268.5 billion yuan [4] - Residential loans increased by 350 billion yuan, with medium and long-term loans rising by 300 billion yuan, benefiting from the effects of real estate optimization policies [4] - Corporate loans increased by 490 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 401.6 billion yuan, with short-term loans decreasing by 20 billion yuan and medium and long-term loans increasing by 40 billion yuan [4] - Bill financing increased by 450 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 300.3 billion yuan, indicating significant bill financing at the end of the quarter [4] Monetary Supply - In December, M1 and M2 grew by -1.4% and +7.3% year-on-year, respectively, with M1-M2 spread narrowing to -8.7% [4] - The new M1 calculation method, effective from January 2025, includes personal demand deposits and non-bank payment institution customer reserves, with the new M1 growth rate estimated at 1.21% in December [4] - RMB deposits decreased by 1.4 trillion yuan in December, with residential and corporate deposits increasing by 2.19 trillion yuan and 1.81 trillion yuan, respectively [4] - Non-bank deposits decreased by 3.17 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.64 trillion yuan, due to the optimization of non-bank interbank deposit interest rate self-regulation mechanisms and year-end wealth management redemptions [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on banks with strong dividend value, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398), China Construction Bank (601939), Postal Savings Bank of China (601658), Bank of Jiangsu (600919), and Bank of Changshu (601128) [4]