12月及24年经济数据解读：稳中有进，静待需求发力

Economic Growth - 2024 Q4 GDP grew by 5.4% YoY, with strong supply-side performance[2] - Full-year GDP growth reached 5.0%, with quarterly growth rates of 5.3%, 4.7%, 4.6%, and 5.4%, showing a "U-shaped" trend[2] - Nominal GDP growth was 4.2%, lower than the real GDP growth of 5.0%, indicating a divergence between nominal and real growth[2] Consumption - Social retail sales grew by 3.5% in 2024, with a slight rebound in Q4 to 3.8%[3] - December retail sales increased by 3.7% YoY, driven by policies like appliance trade-ins and early Spring Festival effects[3] - Appliance and communication equipment sales saw significant growth, with home appliances up 39.3% YoY[13] Manufacturing - Manufacturing investment grew by 9.2% in 2024, with high-tech manufacturing up 7.0% and high-tech services up 10.2%[4] - Equipment and tool investment grew by 15.7% in December, supporting manufacturing growth[4] - Railway transportation equipment and computer electronics were key growth sectors, with railway equipment up 10.6% and computer electronics up 8.7%[93] Infrastructure - Narrow infrastructure investment (excluding power) grew by 4.4% in 2024, with December growth reaching 6.3%[6] - Structural shifts in infrastructure investment, with higher growth in water, electricity, and railway sectors, while traditional urban construction slowed[6] - 2025 infrastructure investment is expected to follow a "low first, high later" trend due to reduced local government bond issuance[39] Real Estate - Real estate investment declined by 10.6% in 2024, with December seeing a sharper drop of 13.3%[6] - Housing prices in first-tier cities stabilized, with new home prices turning positive in December[6] - Land transaction area in 100 cities surged by 97.6% MoM in December, indicating a year-end land acquisition rush[58] Industrial Production - Industrial added value grew by 6.2% YoY in December, with manufacturing up 7.4%[6] - Automobile production surged by 17.7% YoY in December, driven by policy support and export demand[93] - New energy vehicle production increased by 43.2% YoY, while solar photovoltaic cells and integrated circuits grew by 20.2% and 12.5%, respectively[93] Employment - The national urban surveyed unemployment rate averaged 5.1% in 2024, down 0.1 percentage points YoY[6] - Local household unemployment rate rose to 5.3% in December, marking two consecutive months of increase[6] - Average weekly working hours reached 49.0 hours, reflecting increased labor market pressure[105] Policy and Outlook - 2025 Q1 growth is expected to be supported by continued export strength and domestic policy stimulus[10] - Real estate market stabilization remains a key policy focus, with potential support from urban renewal projects[85] - Industrial production is expected to maintain high growth, driven by new quality productivity and green transformation[93]