消费行业：消费刺激效果显著，春节相关消费提前备货

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the consumer sector, particularly highlighting the significant impact of stimulus policies on boosting consumption, especially in the home appliance and furniture sectors [1][2][3] Core Views - The report emphasizes the effectiveness of consumer stimulus policies, particularly the "trade-in" subsidies, which have significantly boosted retail sales in the home appliance and furniture sectors [1][2][3] - The report predicts that the 2025 subsidy policy will continue to drive consumer demand, with an estimated subsidy scale of around 500 billion yuan, potentially boosting the overall retail sales growth by 1.7 percentage points [3] - The report notes a structural shift in consumer behavior, with increased spending on travel, entertainment, and mental health-related activities, while the catering and accommodation sectors have shown weaker performance due to insufficient demand and increased supply [4] Summary by Relevant Sections Social Retail Sales (社零) - In 2024, the total social retail sales reached 48.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, with Q4 showing a stronger growth of 3.8% compared to Q3 [1] - The "trade-in" subsidy policy significantly boosted retail sales in the home appliance and furniture sectors, contributing approximately 1 percentage point to the overall retail sales growth in Q4 [1] Home Appliances (家电) - The home appliance sector benefited the most from the "trade-in" subsidy, with retail sales in December 2024 surging by 39.30% year-on-year to 113.3 billion yuan [2] - The subsidy policy led to a concentration in retail, with larger enterprises experiencing higher growth rates compared to the overall market [2] Furniture (轻工) - The furniture sector also saw positive effects from the subsidy policy, with retail sales in December 2024 increasing by 8.8% year-on-year [2] - The report expects further relaxation of subsidy categories and merchant qualifications in 2025, which will continue to benefit the furniture sector [2] Travel and Entertainment (出行、文娱) - Travel and entertainment-related consumption saw significant growth in 2024, with railway and civil aviation passenger traffic reaching record highs, increasing by 12% and 18% respectively [4] - The sports and entertainment sector also saw robust growth, with a 16.7% year-on-year increase in December 2024 [4] Food and Beverage (食品饮料) - The report highlights a positive change in the retail sales of tobacco and alcohol in December 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, driven by early preparations for the 2025 Spring Festival [7] - The beverage sector saw a decline in retail sales in December 2024, but the report attributes this to statistical coverage issues and expects growth from small retail outlets due to increased travel [7] Agriculture (农业) - The report notes a 9.9% year-on-year increase in retail sales of grain and oil food products in December 2024, driven by rising pork prices and early Spring Festival preparations [7] Investment Recommendations (投资建议) - The report recommends focusing on companies with high growth certainty, relatively low valuations, and high dividend yields in the consumer sector, particularly in home appliances, furniture, travel services, agriculture, and food and beverage industries [9] Charts and Data (图表和数据) - The report includes various charts and data tables detailing the performance of different sectors, including social retail sales, home appliances, furniture, travel, and food and beverage [12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57][58][59][60][61][62][63][64][65][66][67][68][69][70][71]