Predicting Academic Success in College: The Comparative Strength of High School GPA, ACT Score, and Demographic Factor

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The study reveals that neither high school GPA (HSGPA) nor ACT Composite score consistently dominates across all models, challenging prior conclusions about their relative importance [3][4][92] - Academic achievement measures are significantly stronger predictors of first-year GPA (FYGPA) than demographic variables, with family income and gender being the least important [3][4][92] - English and math performance in high school are highlighted as dominant predictive roles for college success [3][4][92] Summary by Sections Introduction - Accurately predicting FYGPA is crucial for admissions decisions and student support services, with HSGPA and standardized test scores being commonly used predictors [11][88] Methodology - The analytical sample consisted of 7,924 students from a southern state in the U.S. who took the ACT and enrolled in public four-year colleges [23] - Multiple imputation and dominance analysis were employed to evaluate the relative importance of predictors [21][32] Results - General dominance results indicate that ACT Composite score and HSGPA tie for the highest R2 contribution, followed by race/ethnicity, family income, and gender [44][45] - English GPA emerged as the most dominant predictor of FYGPA, followed by ACT English score and ACT math score [63][65] - The weakest predictors of FYGPA were family income and gender, which were frequently dominated by other achievement variables [96][97] Discussion - The findings emphasize the importance of academic readiness measures, such as HSGPA and ACT scores, over demographic factors in predicting college success [97][98] - The study suggests that colleges should focus on academic achievement metrics in admissions decisions and support services [97][98]