CTG DUTY-FREE(601888) 申万宏源·2025-01-19 01:21Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a decline in performance for 2024, with total revenue expected to be 56.49 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.36% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.26 billion yuan, down 36.5% year-on-year [7] - Despite the challenges, the company has increased its market share in the Hainan duty-free market by nearly 2 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company is expanding its city duty-free store projects, having successfully bid for six new stores in major cities, bringing the total to 13 [7] - The company anticipates a recovery in profits in 2025 and 2026, with projected net profits of 5.60 billion yuan and 6.76 billion yuan respectively [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2023 was 67.54 billion yuan, with a projected revenue of 67.57 billion yuan for 2025 and 80.57 billion yuan for 2026 [5][9] - The net profit for 2023 was 6.71 billion yuan, with forecasts of 4.28 billion yuan for 2024, 5.60 billion yuan for 2025, and 6.76 billion yuan for 2026 [5][9] - The company's gross margin is expected to stabilize around 30% from 2024 onwards [5] - The projected price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for 2025 and 2026 is 23 and 19 respectively [7]