建筑装饰2024年1-12月投资数据点评：经济运行稳中有进，传统基建投资边际改善

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" for the period of January to December 2024 [2]. Core Viewpoints - The economic performance in 2024 is expected to show steady progress, with a GDP growth of 5.0% year-on-year. Fixed asset investment is projected to increase by 3.2% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment growing by 9.2% [3][4]. - Traditional infrastructure investment showed marginal improvement in December 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 9.2% for the entire year. The water conservancy sector continues to see high growth [5][6]. - Real estate investment remains low, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.6% in 2024. The construction and completion rates have also weakened, indicating a slow recovery in the sector [9][11]. Summary by Sections Economic Performance - The GDP growth for 2024 is projected at 5.0%, with quarterly growth rates of 5.3%, 4.7%, 4.6%, and 5.4% respectively [3][4]. - Fixed asset investment for the year is expected to grow by 3.2%, with manufacturing investment increasing by 9.2% [3][4]. Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment (including all sectors) increased by 9.2% year-on-year, while investment excluding electricity grew by 4.4% [5][6]. - Specific sectors such as transportation and public utilities showed varied growth, with transportation investment up by 5.9% and water management investment up by 4.2% [5][6]. Real Estate Investment - Real estate investment saw a significant decline of 10.6% year-on-year, with construction starts down by 23.0% and completions down by 27.7% [9][11]. - The report anticipates a slow recovery in real estate investment due to challenges in inventory replenishment and excessive supply clearing [9][11]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a moderate recovery in infrastructure investment in 2025, highlighting the investment value in cyclical high-elasticity sectors and undervalued state-owned enterprises [15]. - Specific companies to watch include Donghua Technology, China Chemical, and Honglu Steel Structure, among others [15][17].