交运行业一周天地汇：黑船受限是油轮大周期逻辑最后一片拼图，节后运价有望再上台阶

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the transportation industry, particularly highlighting the potential for increased freight rates post-Chinese New Year [4][6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the restrictions on "black ships" represent the final piece of the oil tanker cycle logic, with supply-side challenges increasing operational difficulties and efficiency declines, while the elimination of older vessels is returning to normal [6][8]. - Demand factors that previously impacted tanker rates, such as increased production from Iran and Russia, are expected to stabilize, leading to a recovery in demand after the Chinese New Year and a higher probability of OPEC increasing production [6][8]. - The report continues to recommend specific companies, including COSCO Shipping Energy, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Xingtong Co., as potential investment opportunities [6][8]. Summary by Sections Shipping - VLCC rates surged by 132% to $50,850 per day, driven by oil price volatility and strong market sentiment among shipowners [12]. - Suezmax rates increased by 48% to $37,308 per day, while Aframax rates rose by 3% to $27,669 per day [12]. - The report notes that the market is experiencing a strong demand for oil transportation, with expectations for continued rate increases in the near term [12][13]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is projected to see a 21% growth in business volume in 2024, with major companies like Shentong Express and China Post reporting significant increases in their operational metrics [17][18]. - The report highlights the resilience of direct logistics companies and suggests that investors should seize opportunities in leading firms like SF Express and JD Logistics [18]. Air Cargo - The TAC air freight index for Shanghai Pudong showed a 9.71% decrease month-on-month but a 24.24% increase year-on-year, indicating a mixed performance in the air cargo sector [18]. - The report mentions that major airlines are expanding their fleets, with plans for new cargo aircraft deliveries in the coming years [18][21]. Rail and Road - The report recommends investments in companies like Ninghu Expressway and China Merchants Road, citing a 2.98% increase in rail freight and an 8.08% increase in highway truck traffic [22][23]. - The report notes a decline in cross-regional passenger movement during the early days of the Spring Festival, but anticipates a rebound as the holiday progresses [22][23].