食品饮料行业周报：头部公司股息率已具备吸引力

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage industry, suggesting a balanced allocation between liquor and food sectors, with a focus on dairy products for independent growth opportunities [2][7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the first quarter of 2025 will be driven by policies and expectations, while the second half will focus on fundamentals and performance. It suggests a standard allocation for the sector, with a recommendation to overweight food and underweight liquor in the first half of the year [7]. - The liquor sector is facing significant pressure due to slow demand recovery, with expectations of a challenging sales environment in Q1 2025. However, if the economy improves, the industry fundamentals may reach a bottom [7]. - The report highlights that leading companies in the liquor sector have become attractive for long-term investment based on dividend yields, recommending companies such as Shanxi Fenjiu, Wuliangye, and Kweichow Moutai [7][8]. - In the consumer goods sector, the report identifies opportunities for growth driven by new retail formats and changing consumer preferences towards health and convenience. It also notes that dairy products are expected to see improvements in capacity and market structure [7][9]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The report notes a slight decrease in the price of Moutai, with the current bottle price at 2220 yuan, down 10 yuan week-on-week, and a case price of 2240 yuan, down 20 yuan week-on-week. Wuliangye's price is around 910 yuan, up 10 yuan week-on-week [8]. - The report indicates that the overall inventory in the liquor industry is expected to increase both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, but major brands are managing inventory more rationally [8]. Consumer Goods Sector - The report cites December retail sales data showing a total of 4.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. The food and beverage sector is expected to recover gradually, with companies having adjusted their inventories and operations [9]. - The report expresses optimism about the dairy sector in 2025, highlighting the potential for growth in companies like Yili and Qingdao Beer, as well as opportunities in the snack food segment [10]. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector saw a 2.10% increase last week, with liquor stocks rising by 2.43%. However, the sector underperformed compared to the broader market, ranking 27th among 31 sub-industries [6].