房地产1-12月月报：投资趋弱，销售改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, indicating an expectation of better performance compared to the overall market [2][24]. Core Insights - The investment side of the real estate sector remains weak, with significant declines in investment, new starts, and completions. For 2024, the report forecasts a year-on-year investment decline of 10.6% and a new start decline of 23.0% [2][15]. - The sales side shows signs of improvement, particularly in residential sales, which increased by 4.4% year-on-year in December. However, the overall sales area is expected to decline by 12.9% for 2024 [2][16]. - The funding side indicates a slight widening of declines, with total funding sources down by 17% year-on-year for 2024, although there are signs of improvement in sales collections [2][26]. Summary by Sections Investment Analysis - In December, the investment in real estate showed a year-on-year decline of 13.3%, with new starts and completions also down significantly. The report anticipates a continued weak investment environment, projecting a 9.9% decline in investment for 2025 [2][15][3]. Sales Analysis - December sales data indicates a stabilization with residential sales up by 4.4% year-on-year, while total sales area is expected to decline by 12.9% for 2024. The report suggests that the sector is in a bottoming phase, with potential for recovery driven by policy support [2][16][24]. Funding Analysis - The funding sources for real estate developers decreased by 17% year-on-year in 2024, with a 7.1% decline noted in December. The report highlights a tightening funding environment but anticipates gradual improvement due to ongoing policy relaxations [2][26][27]. Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their product strength, valuation recovery potential, and benefits from land acquisition and urban renewal projects. Notable mentions include companies like China Overseas Development, Poly Developments, and China Resources Land [2][24].