商贸零售行业12月社会零售品消费数据点评：12月社零超预期，政策加码看好25年消费提振

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [9]. Core Insights - December 2024 saw a 3.7% year-on-year increase in social retail sales, surpassing market expectations, driven by improved consumer sentiment and supportive government policies [3]. - The report highlights a strong performance in the retail sector, particularly in online sales, which grew by 7.2% year-on-year, indicating a stable online penetration rate [3]. - The report emphasizes the positive impact of the "old-for-new" policy, which has stimulated demand in various consumer categories, particularly in home appliances and furniture [3]. Summary by Sections Social Retail Sales - In December 2024, social retail sales reached 4.5 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, exceeding the market consensus of 3.5% [3]. - Excluding automobiles, retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.2% year-on-year [3]. Online and Offline Retail Performance - Online retail sales in December amounted to 1.2757 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8% [3]. - The offline retail sector is undergoing optimization, with convenience stores and specialty shops showing positive growth trends [3]. Service Retail and Consumer Sentiment - Service retail sales grew by 6.2% year-on-year, reflecting improved consumer expectations driven by government policies [3]. - The report notes a significant increase in retail sales related to the "old-for-new" policy, particularly in electronics and home goods [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on e-commerce platforms like Alibaba, JD.com, and Meituan, as well as retail brands that enhance offline shopping experiences [3]. - It also highlights opportunities in the tourism sector and human resources services, indicating a broad recovery in consumer spending [3].