证券行业2024E业绩前瞻：低基数下4Q24E业绩同环比增幅走阔，全年业绩逐季修复得到验证

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the securities industry, forecasting a recovery in performance for 2024 [1]. Core Insights - The securities sector is expected to see a year-on-year revenue growth of 9% and a net profit growth of 16% in 2024, with a significant increase in Q4 2024 performance driven by low base effects [1][2]. - The brokerage and proprietary trading businesses are highlighted as having strong elasticity, with Q4 2024 revenue projected to reach 172.4 billion yuan, a 50% year-on-year increase [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monetary policy easing and its positive impact on the securities sector's performance, particularly in the context of bond investments [2][5]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - For 2024, total revenue is projected at 543.8 billion yuan, with a net profit of 149.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 9% and 16% year-on-year increase respectively [3]. - Q4 2024 is expected to show a revenue of 172.4 billion yuan and a net profit of 45.7 billion yuan, marking a 50% and 145% year-on-year increase respectively [3][5]. Brokerage and Margin Financing - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market is expected to remain above 1.6 trillion yuan, with significant growth in margin financing balances [2][5]. - The brokerage business is projected to generate 45.6 billion yuan in revenue for Q4 2024, a 92% year-on-year increase [3][5]. Investment Banking - The report notes a decrease in IPO and refinancing volumes but anticipates a recovery in the investment banking sector due to improved market conditions [2][5]. - Q4 2024 investment banking revenue is expected to be 8.5 billion yuan, down 18% year-on-year but up 10% quarter-on-quarter [3][5]. Asset Management - The asset management sector is projected to generate 11.2 billion yuan in revenue for Q4 2024, with a slight year-on-year decline of 1.8% [5]. - The report highlights the rapid growth of ETFs and the ongoing fee reduction policies as key factors supporting the asset management business [5]. Market Trends and Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on firms with strong earnings elasticity and those involved in mergers and acquisitions as key investment themes for 2024 [5]. - Specific companies such as Dongfang Securities and Huatai Securities are recommended based on their favorable market positions and financial health [5].