策略周报：当“春季躁动”遇上特朗普就任

Group 1 - The report highlights the historical characteristics of the "Spring Rally" since 2010, noting that the market typically stabilizes and forms a temporary low in the week before the Spring Festival, initiating the "Spring Rally" around the holiday [7][10] - During the "Spring Rally," small-cap stocks tend to outperform in terms of odds and win rates, with strong performance often observed in the first five trading days after the Spring Festival [7][10] - The report suggests that the upcoming political environment, particularly with the inauguration of President Trump, may create favorable conditions for the A-share market, despite potential market volatility due to uncertainties in his initial policies [3][11] Group 2 - The report indicates that since mid-December, the market has experienced a round of adjustments, and as the Two Sessions approach, a new round of policy-driven market activity is expected, which could enhance liquidity in the equity market [10] - It emphasizes that the current economic recovery remains uncertain, with weak internal momentum, and suggests that sectors with performance elasticity and clear policy logic, such as technology growth and new consumption, may be favored in the short term [10][11] - The report recommends investors to participate in the "Spring Rally" window based on their risk appetite, focusing on sectors like technology growth (electronics, media, communication) and new consumption (dining, tourism, retail) [11]