地产及物管行业周报：继续践行止跌回稳，供给出清接近终章

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management industry [3]. Core Viewpoints - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with supply clearing nearing its end. The effective inventory is at a low level, while ineffective inventory remains high in third and fourth-tier cities [3][28]. - The report anticipates that the industry will bottom out, with a weak overall volume but strong structural resilience, particularly in first and second-tier cities [3][28]. Industry Data Summary - New Home Transaction Volume: In the week of January 11-17, 2025, 34 key cities recorded a total new home transaction of 257.5 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 7% [4][21]. - Year-on-Year Changes: January's new home transactions in 34 cities showed a year-on-year decrease of 3%, with first and second-tier cities up by 5% and third and fourth-tier cities down by 44% [7][9]. - Second-Hand Home Transactions: In the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 cities totaled 138.3 million square meters, down 20% week-on-week, but up 66% year-on-year for January [13][14]. Policy and News Tracking - Market Policies: The report highlights various local government initiatives aimed at revitalizing the real estate market, including urban renewal projects in Shanghai and Shenzhen, and adjustments to housing loan rates [28][29]. - Sales and Investment Data: In 2024, the total sales of commercial housing reached 9.68 trillion yuan, down 17.1% year-on-year, with a total sales area of 970 million square meters, down 12.9% [28][30]. Company Announcements - Sales Performance: China Resources Land reported a sales figure of 32 billion yuan in December 2024, a year-on-year increase of 52%, while the total sales for 2024 were 261.1 billion yuan, down 15% [31][32]. - Profit Forecasts: Various companies, including China Fortune Land Development and Poly Developments, are forecasting significant losses for 2024, with expected net profits ranging from -6 billion to -4 billion yuan for China Fortune Land Development [31][32]. - Share Buybacks: Companies such as Beike-W and Yuexiu Services have engaged in share buybacks, indicating confidence in their stock value [32][35].