化妆品医美行业周报：美妆需求略显疲软，集团加速美妆医美融合布局

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the cosmetics and medical beauty industry, indicating a favorable investment environment for the sector in 2025 [3][4]. Core Insights - The demand for beauty products appears slightly weak, with a 1.1% decline in retail sales for cosmetics in 2024. However, it is expected to stabilize and recover in 2025 due to consumer policy incentives and new shopping scenarios [4][9]. - Major beauty groups are accelerating their integration of cosmetics and medical aesthetics, with companies like Shiseido and L'Oréal making strategic investments in this area [4][9]. - The report highlights the anticipated performance of key companies in 2024, with expected revenue growth for several brands, including Proya (+25%), Shiseido (+60%), and Marubi (+30%) [4][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector outperformed the market from January 10 to January 17, 2025, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index rising by 4.3%, compared to a 0.7% increase in the Shenwan A Index [5][6]. Market Trends - The overall retail sales of cosmetics in 2024 showed a decline of 1.1%, indicating a weak demand environment. However, a recovery is anticipated in 2025, supported by favorable consumer policies and new gifting scenarios [4][9]. - The report notes that the medical aesthetics market is growing at a rate exceeding 20%, making it an attractive area for investment as beauty companies seek to integrate these services [4][21]. Company Performance Forecast - Proya is expected to achieve a 25% increase in overall revenue and a 26% increase in net profit for 2024. Shiseido is projected to see a 60% increase in revenue and a 75% increase in net profit [10][11]. - Other companies like Marubi and Juzibio are also expected to report significant growth, with revenue increases of 30% and 45%, respectively [10][11]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with a comprehensive brand matrix and strong performance in live e-commerce, such as Proya, Shiseido, and Marubi. It also suggests keeping an eye on niche players like Juzibio and Maogeping, which are benefiting from the rise of domestic brands and innovative products [4][14].