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石油化工行业周报：看好全球原油需求增速，但非OPEC+产量增长强劲，EIA维持今年油价预测
2025-01-20 01:05

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, with a focus on the growth of global crude oil demand and strong production growth from non-OPEC+ countries [1][2]. Core Viewpoints - The EIA has maintained and slightly adjusted its price forecasts for crude oil and natural gas for 2025 and 2026, expecting an average crude oil price of $74 per barrel in 2025 and $66 per barrel in 2026 [1][2]. - Global oil demand is projected to increase significantly, with the IEA forecasting a growth of 940,000 barrels per day in 2024 and 1,050,000 barrels per day in 2025 [4][10]. - Non-OPEC+ countries are expected to contribute the majority of the production increase, with EIA predicting a rise of 176,000 barrels per day in global oil supply in 2025 [7][10]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - As of January 17, 2025, Brent crude futures closed at $80.79 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.29% [17]. - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. decreased to 580, down by 4 rigs week-on-week [29]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products increased to $11.48 per barrel, while the U.S. gasoline RBOB-WTI spread rose to $10.75 per barrel [1]. - The report indicates that refining profitability is expected to improve as economic recovery progresses [1]. Polyester Sector - PTA prices have risen, with the average spot price in East China reaching 5,067.00 CNY per ton, up 4.25% week-on-week [1]. - The overall performance of the polyester industry is considered average, but there are signs of improvement in demand [1]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends high-dividend companies such as China Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [12]. - It also highlights the potential for growth in offshore oil service companies like CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering [12]. - The polyester sector is expected to see significant improvements, with a focus on quality companies like Tongkun Co., Ltd. [12].