经济形势跟踪：财政政策接棒进行中

Economic Performance - China's GDP growth in Q4 2024 was 5.4%, up from 4.6% in Q3 2024, indicating a rebound in economic activity[3] - The overall GDP growth for 2024 was 5%, slightly exceeding market expectations[3] Fiscal Policy - In December 2024, local government special bond issuance increased significantly, reaching a historical high, while fiscal deposits saw a record seasonal decline[4] - The increase in fiscal spending is expected to enhance effective demand in the real economy, contributing to economic stability[4] Real Economy Trends - The manufacturing PMI in December 2024 showed signs of decline, indicating weakening self-recovery momentum in the real economy[14] - Weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 cities fell in early January 2025, raising concerns about future real estate sales trends[14] Export and Trade - The decline in the Southeast Asia shipping container price index in January 2025 suggests potential pressures on future exports from China[14] - Despite stable exports in late 2024, the "export rush" phenomenon may not sustain in 2025, leading to greater downward pressure on exports[14] Currency Stability - The People's Bank of China has adopted a clearer stance on stabilizing the RMB exchange rate amid depreciation pressures[16] - Domestic fiscal policy strength and external depreciation pressures are likely to lead policymakers to prioritize exchange rate stability[16] Bond Market Insights - Long-term bond yields are currently perceived as too low, primarily due to decreased sensitivity of financing rates in the real economy since 2024[20] - Recent data indicates a potential rebound in bond yields as fiscal policy strengthens and financing demand improves[20]