2024年12月和四季度经济数据点评：2024年经济增长完成目标

Economic Growth - In 2024, the actual GDP growth reached 5.0%, with Q4 GDP growing by 5.4%, exceeding market expectations[1][3] - The contribution to the 2024 GDP growth primarily came from resilient industrial value added, strong external demand, and fiscal support for infrastructure[40] Industrial Performance - In December 2024, industrial added value increased by 6.2% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 5.5%[10] - The manufacturing sector's cumulative year-on-year growth was 6.1%, while high-tech industries saw an 8.9% increase[10] Consumer Spending - December retail sales grew by 3.7% year-on-year, with non-automotive retail sales increasing by 4.2%[18] - The per capita disposable income for residents in 2024 was 41,314 yuan, reflecting a 5.3% year-on-year growth[34] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth was 3.2% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment rising by 9.2% and infrastructure investment by 4.4%[26] - Real estate investment saw a decline of 10.6% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector[30] Real Estate Market - In December, new residential prices in 70 major cities fell by 5.7%, while second-hand residential prices dropped by 8.1%[32] - The total sales area of commercial housing decreased by 12.9% year-on-year, with sales revenue down by 17.1%[32] Future Outlook - The economic growth target for 2025 is expected to remain at 5%, but uncertainties in external demand and consumer income growth may pose challenges[40] - The implementation of proactive fiscal policies and potential monetary easing are anticipated to support economic stability in 2025[40]