化工行业周报：周期底部蓄势，把握成长确定性机会

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is at the bottom of the cycle, presenting opportunities for growth with certainty [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of structural opportunities in chemical products and the potential for valuation recovery in 2025 [1] Summary by Sections Oil Market - As of January 17, Brent and WTI oil prices reached $80.79 and $77.88 per barrel, respectively, with increases of 1.29% and 1.71% compared to the previous week [4][8] - The average weekly price increased by 4.88% for Brent and 5.73% for WTI [4][10] - Year-to-date, Brent and WTI prices have risen by 8.24% and 8.59%, respectively [4][10] - The report highlights supply uncertainties due to U.S. sanctions on Russia's energy sector, which may lead to short-term supply tightness [4][9] Inventory Conversion - The average inventory conversion profit for crude oil was 463 RMB/ton this week, and 283 RMB/ton year-to-date [15] Price Changes - Among 170 tracked chemical products, 82 saw price increases (48.2%), while 27 decreased (15.9%) [19] - Key products with significant price increases include caustic soda (up 8.5%), TDI (up 5.3%), and butadiene (up 7.9%) [19][22] - The report notes that the price of caustic soda is expected to continue rising due to supply tightness [19] Price Spread Changes - Among 130 tracked products, 62 price spreads increased (47.7%), while 57 decreased (43.8%) [26] - The report identifies significant increases in price spreads for products like maleic anhydride and PX [26][27]