军工行业周报：以色列与哈马斯达成加沙停火协议

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the CSI 300 Index by more than 5% in the next six months [51]. Core Viewpoints - The global geopolitical tensions are escalating, leading to a new round of military expansion. China's defense spending has consistently grown faster than GDP growth in most years, suggesting significant growth potential in defense spending, which is expected to remain above GDP growth in the long term. The year 2025 marks the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan," and the industry is anticipated to emerge from a two-year downturn, entering a recovery phase. As orders normalize and are gradually released, the military industry may experience a "Davis Double-Click" phase of performance improvement and valuation enhancement. It is recommended to focus on leading companies in advanced fighter jets, low-altitude economy, domestically produced large aircraft, satellite internet, and underwater offense and defense sectors, which have favorable competitive landscapes and high technological barriers [4][11]. Summary by Sections Industry Viewpoints - The military industry is expected to benefit from a recovery in 2025, with a focus on sectors such as advanced fighter jets and satellite internet [4][11]. Sector Performance - The Aerospace and Defense Index increased by 1.11% this week, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 0.86%. However, the Aerospace and Defense Index decreased by 6.05% over the month, compared to a 2.54% decline in the CSI 300 Index [12]. Industry News - A ceasefire agreement was reached between Israel and Hamas, effective January 19, 2025, aimed at restoring peace in the Gaza Strip [16]. - The Chinese People's Liberation Army Eastern Theater Command delegation is set to visit Japan to enhance mutual understanding and defense exchanges [17]. - Sixteen domestically produced C919 large aircraft will be operational during the Spring Festival travel rush, with multiple airlines participating [19]. - China's "artificial sun" device has achieved a breakthrough, enhancing research capabilities for next-generation fusion energy [20]. - SpaceX's Starship experienced a loss of signal during its seventh test flight, although the booster was successfully recovered [21]. Company Tracking - Various companies have released their 2024 annual performance forecasts, with some expecting significant losses while others anticipate growth. For instance, China Power is projected to achieve a net profit of between 1.17 billion and 1.4 billion yuan, marking an increase of 50.10% to 79.61% compared to the previous year [30].