社会服务行业双周报：24全年社零稳步修复，赴台团队游部分恢复

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services industry, indicating expectations for the industry index to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [50]. Core Insights - The social services sector saw a 2.79% increase in the first two trading weeks of 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.80 percentage points [1][9]. - The recovery in social retail consumption is steady, with expectations for further growth in resident income and consumer confidence in 2025 [2][39]. - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to drive travel demand, with an estimated 9 billion trips anticipated during the holiday period [2][28]. Summary by Sections Market Review & Industry Dynamics - The social services sector ranked 11th among 31 industries in the Shenwan classification during the reporting period [1][9]. - The sub-sectors showing positive performance include Education (+5.29%), Professional Services (+3.10%), and Tourism & Scenic Areas (+2.99%) [15]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods in 2024 reached approximately 48.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [2][28]. Investment Recommendations - Companies with strong performance growth potential include Huangshan Tourism, Lijiang Co., Songcheng Performance, and others in the travel chain and related industries [2][39]. - Hotel brands benefiting from business travel recovery include Junting Hotel, Jinjiang Hotel, and ShouLai Hotel [2][39]. - The recovery of cross-border travel is expected to boost airport duty-free sales, with recommendations to focus on China Duty Free Group and Wangfujing [2][39]. Company Dynamics & Announcements - China Duty Free Group has successfully bid for the operation rights of six city duty-free stores, expanding its presence to 13 cities [25]. - The hotel search interest surged by 36% due to increased attention from overseas users on Chinese social media platforms [25]. - The Spring Festival period is seeing a significant increase in high-star hotel bookings in county-level cities, with some locations experiencing a doubling in reservations [26]. Travel Data Tracking - Domestic travel is recovering post-pandemic, with significant increases in both inbound and outbound travel as policies continue to relax [33]. - The report highlights a notable increase in flight operations, with a 3.32% week-on-week rise in passenger flights [1][9]. Sub-industry Valuation - As of January 17, 2025, the social services industry's PE (TTM) stands at 22.00 times, significantly higher than the CSI 300's PE of 11.91 times [17].