有色金属行业周报：美联储宽松预期改善，电解铝利润有望走扩

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating potential profit expansion in the electrolytic aluminum sector due to improved expectations of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [1]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry is experiencing a significant price increase, with the SW non-ferrous metals index rising by 4.47% this week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index [3][7]. - The report highlights that the average profit in the electrolytic aluminum industry is expected to continue expanding, driven by a decline in alumina prices and increased demand for aluminum products [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Non-Ferrous Metals Market Review - As of January 17, the SW non-ferrous metals index increased by 4.47%, closing at 4572.87 points, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.31% [7][8]. - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown a year-to-date increase of 5.90%, contrasting with declines in the broader market indices [7]. 2. Non-Ferrous Metals Price Review (1) Base Metals - Copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, and tin prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) saw increases of 1.77%, 2.07%, 0.33%, 2.27%, and a decrease of 0.68% respectively [17][18]. - The average profit margin for the electrolytic aluminum industry improved by 42.44%, indicating a recovery from previous lows [25]. (2) Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices on the SHFE increased by 1.17% and 0.60% respectively, with gold closing at 640.68 CNY per gram [47][48]. - The report notes a decline in the U.S. dollar index, which supports the upward trend in gold prices [48]. (3) Rare and Minor Metals - Prices for various rare metals, including lithium carbonate and titanium sponge, showed positive trends, with battery-grade lithium carbonate priced at 77,000 CNY per ton, reflecting a 1.99% increase [59][62]. - The report indicates stable production levels in the upstream supply chain, with demand expected to rise as the Chinese New Year approaches [66]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) reported a global refined copper supply shortage of 32,100 tons in November 2024, with production at 2.3208 million tons and consumption at 2.3529 million tons [89]. - Kazakhstan's refined copper production is projected to increase by 11.6% in 2024, reaching 465,694 tons, indicating a positive supply outlook [90].