12月房地产行业月报：单月销售金额正增长，单月均价同比提升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the real estate industry [1]. Core Insights - The real estate market shows signs of recovery with positive growth in monthly sales amounts for two consecutive months, indicating strong policy support [2][8]. - The cumulative sales area and sales amount for 2024 have seen a narrowing decline compared to previous months, suggesting a gradual improvement in market conditions [2][44]. - The report highlights the effectiveness of policies introduced since late September, which have positively impacted both demand and supply sides of the market [2][44]. Sales Summary - In 2024, the total sales area of commercial housing reached 97,385 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 12.90%, but the decline has narrowed by 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous month [2][11]. - The sales amount for December 2024 was 11,625.23 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.38% and a month-on-month increase of 40.57% [2][8]. - The average sales price for 2024 was 9,935 yuan per square meter, down 4.82% year-on-year, but the monthly average price in December increased by 2.87% year-on-year [2][8]. Investment Summary - Real estate development investment for 2024 totaled 100,280 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 10.60%, with December's investment at 6,645.90 billion yuan, down 13.33% year-on-year [2][17]. - New construction area for 2024 was 73,893 million square meters, down 23.00% year-on-year, with December's new construction area at 6,584.56 million square meters [2][20]. - The completion area for 2024 was 73,743 million square meters, down 27.70% year-on-year, with December's completion area at 25,591.29 million square meters, showing a significant month-on-month increase [2][24]. Funding Summary - Cumulative funds received by real estate companies in 2024 amounted to 107,661 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 17.00%, but the decline has narrowed by 1.0 percentage point compared to the previous month [2][27]. - Domestic loans for the year totaled 15,217 billion yuan, down 6.10% year-on-year, while personal mortgage loans decreased by 27.90% [2][27]. - The report suggests that the pressure on corporate financing may gradually ease due to the policies implemented since late September [2][27]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies, including Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, Longfor Group, and others, highlighting their strong operational management capabilities and potential for market share growth [2][44]. - It also suggests paying attention to leading companies in various segments, such as Beike-W and China Overseas Development, for their quality assets and management [2][44].