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化工行业周报：三代制冷剂毛利继续走扩；快速去库推动涤纶长丝价格上涨
Tai Ping Yang·2025-01-21 00:00

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the basic chemical industry [1] Core Insights - The profitability of third-generation refrigerants continues to expand, and rapid destocking is driving up the prices of polyester filament [1][5] - The 2025 refrigerant quotas have been announced, with a significant reduction in second-generation refrigerants and a slight increase in third-generation refrigerants, which is expected to sustain high industry prosperity [5] Summary by Sections 1. Key Industry and Product Tracking - The profitability of third-generation refrigerants remains strong, with production quotas for second-generation refrigerants (HCFCs) set at 163,600 tons for 2025, a decrease of 49,600 tons year-on-year, while third-generation refrigerants (HFCs) have a quota of 791,900 tons, an increase of 43,400 tons year-on-year [3][4] - As of January 19, the profitability for R22 was 21,343.78 CNY/ton, down 152 CNY/ton from the previous week; R142b profitability increased by 2,126 CNY/ton to 3,792.78 CNY/ton; R125 profitability rose by 393 CNY/ton to 23,455.75 CNY/ton; R32 profitability increased by 683 CNY/ton to 27,624.13 CNY/ton; R134a profitability rose by 475 CNY/ton to 26,717 CNY/ton [4][26] 2. Polyester Filament Market - Significant destocking in the polyester filament market has led to price increases, with POY150D/48F averaging 7,300 CNY/ton (up 250 CNY/ton, 3.55% increase), FDY150D/96F at 7,700 CNY/ton (up 200 CNY/ton, 2.67% increase), and DTY150D/48F at 8,450 CNY/ton (up 200 CNY/ton, 2.42% increase) [4] 3. Polyurethane Market - MDI prices have seen a slight increase, with the average price for polymer MDI in South China at 18,250 CNY/ton (up 300 CNY/ton), and pure MDI at 18,800 CNY/ton (unchanged) [16] 4. Agricultural Chemicals - Urea prices have increased slightly to 1,644 CNY/ton (up 5 CNY/ton), while potassium chloride prices rose to 2,553 CNY/ton (up 1.27%) [21] 5. Fluorochemical Industry - The profitability of third-generation refrigerants continues to rise, with stable prices for key products [22][23]