美股策略周报：行情将从数据驱动转到政策驱动

Core Insights - The report indicates a shift from data-driven market dynamics to policy-driven influences, particularly with the upcoming policies from the new administration [1] - Economic indicators such as PPI and CPI show positive trends, with December PPI at 3.3% year-on-year and CPI at 2.9%, aligning with expectations [5][6] - Retail sales in December were approximately $729.2 billion, reflecting a 0.4% month-on-month increase, which was below the expected 0.6% [8] - The housing market shows strong demand, with new residential construction rising to an annualized rate of 1.483 million units in December, following three months of decline [10] - Market sentiment is improving, with the sentiment index rising to 38, indicating a shift from fear to a more optimistic outlook [14] Economic Data Summary - December PPI increased by 3.3% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 3.5%, and month-on-month by 0.2%, also below the expected 0.4% [5] - December CPI matched expectations at 2.9% year-on-year, with core CPI at 3.2%, better than the expected 3.3% [5][7] - Retail sales data indicates a stable consumer environment despite being below market consensus [8] Market Performance - The global equity market rose by 2.6%, with developed markets outperforming emerging markets [16] - The S&P 500 index increased by 2.9%, maintaining a position above its 20-day moving average [17] - Small-cap value stocks outperformed large-cap value and growth stocks, indicating a preference for value investments [17] Sector Analysis - Among 36 sectors, 32 experienced gains, with the financial sector leading, while healthcare lagged [19] - Strong sectors included pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and hardware, with notable inflows into Tesla, NVIDIA, and JPMorgan [25][26] - The banking sector is expected to report a significant year-on-year earnings increase of 187%, driven by strong EPS growth [31][32] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a barbell ETF strategy, recommending gradual entry into the market during periods of pessimism [1] - The anticipated policies from the new administration are expected to be gradual, with the market already pricing in certain expectations [1]