中国银河：每日晨报-20250121

Group 1: Economic and Market Overview - The LPR remained unchanged in January: 1-year at 3.1% and 5-year at 3.6% [1] - The bond market saw an overall increase in issuance, with a significant rise in interbank certificates of deposit [4] - The real estate sector showed signs of recovery with a positive growth in monthly sales amount for two consecutive months [7] Group 2: Real Estate Sector Insights - In 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 97,385 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 12.90%, but the decline narrowed by 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous month [7] - The monthly sales amount in December 2024 was 11,625.23 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.38% [7] - The average sales price for the year was 9,935 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year decrease of 4.82% [7] Group 3: Aluminum and Precious Metals - The expectation of a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve is likely to support gold prices, with a projected increase in global gold ETF holdings [13][15] - The domestic aluminum industry is expected to see profit recovery due to rising electrolytic aluminum prices and falling alumina costs [17] - The average profit in the electrolytic aluminum sector is anticipated to continue expanding as the industry has passed its lowest profit point [17] Group 4: Chemical Industry Analysis - The chemical industry is experiencing strong price performance, with a significant number of products seeing price increases [19][21] - The valuation of the basic chemical industry is currently at a low level compared to historical averages, indicating medium to long-term investment value [21] - The demand potential is expected to be fully released in 2025 as policy effects gradually manifest and terminal industries recover [21] Group 5: HVAC Industry Insights - The global HVAC market is considered a golden opportunity, with significant growth potential in developing countries due to low penetration rates [27][28] - Chinese companies are positioned competitively in the global HVAC market, particularly in home air conditioning and heat pump sectors [28] - The focus of growth opportunities has shifted from the Chinese market to international markets, especially in the U.S. and Europe [28]