Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power equipment and new energy sector [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant structural opportunities in iron-lithium, smart technology, and deep-sea projects, emphasizing the importance of the photovoltaic industry's bottoming out [4][10] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Viewpoints and Investment Recommendations - The new energy vehicle sector is entering a new cycle, with a favorable supply-demand structure for iron-lithium materials. The total production of lithium iron phosphate is expected to reach 2.38 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 50.2%. Demand is anticipated to continue exceeding expectations due to high growth in large storage needs in Europe and the Middle East [5][20] - The electric vehicle downstream is undergoing structural upgrades, with a projected sales volume of over 12.87 million units in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 35.5%. Notable advancements include the success of Chinese brands in the high-end market, exemplified by Xiaomi's recent sales surpassing competitors [11][21] 2. Photovoltaic Industry - The report notes a strong upward momentum in silicon wafer prices, driven by good inventory reduction and tight supply-demand conditions. However, there are signs of transaction pressure as downstream buyers show resistance to high prices, leading to potential price stagnation [6][12] - Several leading companies have announced significant losses for 2024, but with expectations of a price reversal in the industry chain, profitability is projected to improve in 2025 [6][22] 3. Wind Power Industry - The report indicates that all 7GW provincial projects in Liaoning have initiated competitive bidding, with construction expected between 2026 and 2027. Additionally, there are promising developments in deep-sea wind projects, with multiple provinces releasing clear plans [7][23][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of deep-sea wind projects, with national-level planning expected to promote standardized development [15][24] 4. Price Trends in the Industry Chain - The report highlights an increase in lithium carbonate prices, with various lithium materials showing upward trends. For instance, the price of lithium carbonate (battery-grade) is reported at 77,400 RMB per ton, reflecting a 1.57% increase [25] - In the photovoltaic sector, silicon material prices are stable, while silicon wafer prices are on the rise, indicating ongoing market dynamics [42][45] 5. Company News Tracking - The report mentions strategic collaborations, such as SAIC Motor and CATL deepening their partnership, which is expected to enhance their competitive positioning in the new energy vehicle market [16][20] - Leading photovoltaic companies like LONGi Green Energy and JinkoSolar have released their 2024 performance forecasts, indicating a mixed outlook with some companies still maintaining profitability despite industry challenges [16][22]
新能源周报（第120期20250113--2050119）：铁锂、智能化、深远海等结构性机会明显，重视光伏大底部
Tai Ping Yang·2025-01-21 05:50