计算机2025年投资策略：AI应用和自主可控有望持续演绎

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the computer industry, but it suggests a focus on specific companies based on emerging trends in AI, domestic innovation, and international expansion. Core Insights - The computer industry has shown a slight underperformance compared to the broader market, with a cumulative increase of 4.42% in the Shenwan Computer Index as of December 31, 2024, compared to a 14.68% increase in the CSI 300 Index [2][7]. - The total revenue of listed companies in the computer industry reached 858.14 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.72%, while net profit decreased by 29.8%, indicating pressure on profitability [2][20]. - The report highlights significant advancements in AI applications, with expectations for a full-scale explosion of domestic AI applications by 2025 as local models mature [3][4]. - The trend towards self-sufficiency in IT due to escalating overseas technology sanctions is emphasized, with supportive fiscal policies expected to boost government IT spending [3][4]. - The report notes the increasing opportunities for Chinese computer companies in overseas markets, particularly in emerging markets, as the digital economy expands [4]. Summary by Sections AI - The report discusses the evolution of AI technology, with overseas giants leading the development of multimodal and complex reasoning models, while domestic models are rapidly catching up [3][26]. - AI applications are accelerating commercialization, with notable performance in sectors like search, emotional companionship, advertising, and enterprise services [3][4]. - The domestic AI chip market is expected to thrive as the gap with Nvidia narrows, particularly in inference computing [3][4]. Domestic Innovation (信创) - The report emphasizes the necessity for self-sufficiency in IT, driven by international sanctions, with Huawei's ecosystem playing a pivotal role in developing domestic software and hardware [3][4]. - The Harmony operating system has become the second-largest globally, with a growing native application ecosystem [3][4]. International Expansion (出海) - The rapid growth of China's digital economy presents significant opportunities for computer companies to expand internationally, particularly in emerging markets [4][5]. - The report identifies several companies poised for growth in international markets, including Daotong Technology and Xiechuang Data [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on specific companies based on their alignment with key trends: - For AI: Haiguang Information, iFlytek, Hongsoft Technology, and Entropy Technology [4]. - For domestic innovation: China Great Wall, Zhiwei Intelligent, and Fabon Information [4]. - For international expansion: Daotong Technology, Xiechuang Data, Zhongkong Technology, and Rui Ming Technology [4].