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房地产行业2024年12月70个大中城市房价数据点评:24年新房房价下跌4.5%,二手房下跌7.4%,一线城市二手房跌幅最大
2025-01-21 06:06

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" compared to the market [20]. Core Viewpoints - In December 2024, new home prices in 70 major cities fell by 0.1% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices decreased by 0.3%. The decline in new home prices for the year was 4.5%, and for second-hand homes, it was 7.4%, marking the largest annual drop since 2011 [3][8][11]. - The report highlights a recovery in key cities, with first-tier cities showing a month-on-month increase in new home prices of 0.2% in December, while second-hand home prices in these cities have seen three consecutive months of growth [3][9]. - The report suggests that the market sentiment is improving due to supportive policies and a clearer direction for the industry, with expectations for price stabilization and recovery in the coming months [3][4]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - In December 2024, 43 out of 70 cities saw new home prices decline, with an average drop of 0.31%. For second-hand homes, 60 cities experienced a price drop, averaging 0.42% [3][9]. - Year-on-year, new home prices in 2024 fell by 4.5%, while second-hand home prices dropped by 7.4%, both exceeding the declines seen in previous years [3][4]. City Performance - First-tier cities experienced a month-on-month increase in new home prices, with Shanghai rising by 0.5% and Shenzhen by 0.2%. However, Beijing and Guangzhou continued to see declines [3][4]. - Second-tier cities showed signs of stabilization, with 52% of these cities reporting flat or rising new home prices in December [3][4]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies three main investment lines: 1. Companies with stable fundamentals and high market share in core cities, such as Greentown China and China Resources Land [3][4]. 2. Smaller firms that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition since 2024, like Poly Real Estate [3][4]. 3. Companies benefiting from local government debt relief strategies, such as Xinda Real Estate [3][4].