海外宏观周报（2025年第3期）：通胀下行缓解市场情绪，美英欧日利率决议前瞻

Group 1: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The latest U.S. core CPI for December increased by 2.9% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 2.8%[9] - The core CPI rose by 3.2% year-on-year, below the market expectation of 3.3%[19] - The UK December CPI decreased to 2.5%, lower than both the expected and previous values of 2.6%[28] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - U.S. traders have shifted their expectations for the first interest rate cut from September to July due to easing inflation concerns[4] - Major U.S. stock indices rebounded following the CPI data release, while U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board[9] - The IMF has raised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 2.7%[6] Group 3: Central Bank Actions and Expectations - The Bank of England is expected to cut rates in February, following a decrease in inflation[12] - The European Central Bank's decision on rate cuts will depend on upcoming economic data, particularly from Germany, which is facing economic contraction[13] - The Bank of Japan is anticipated to raise rates due to rising inflation, with CPI data to be released on January 24[13] Group 4: Other Economic Data - U.S. retail sales showed a month-on-month increase of 0.4% in December, while core retail sales also rose by 0.4%[24] - Germany's GDP contracted for the second consecutive year, with a preliminary value of -0.2% for 2024[30]