2025年银行业及资本市场展望：适应低增长低利率环境，以业务创新和成本管控夯实可持续增长根基

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the banking industry Core Insights - The banking industry faces significant challenges in adapting to a low-growth, low-interest-rate environment, with management under pressure due to economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [5][31] - Non-interest income is expected to become a key growth driver as net interest income faces downward pressure due to rising deposit costs [5][14] - The implementation of AI-driven banking strategies is seen as a potential accelerator for technological modernization [67][70] Summary by Sections 2025 Macroeconomic Changes Impacting Global Banking - The U.S. economy is projected to grow at 2.7% in 2024 but slow to 1.5% in 2025, with inflation pressures easing [5] - Consumer debt reached a record high of $17.7 trillion, impacting consumer spending [5] - The Federal Reserve may lower interest rates three to four times in 2025, with the effective federal funds rate expected to fall to between 3.5% and 3.75% [5][6] Basel III "Final" Rule Proposals Impact on Banking - The new Basel III proposals aim to reduce capital requirements, potentially strengthening the overall performance of the banking sector [35] - Global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) may see an increase in common equity tier 1 capital by 9% under the new rules [35][36] - The proposals suggest a more lenient regulatory environment, which could lead to increased merger and acquisition activity among smaller banks [35][36] Increasing Non-Interest Income in 2025 - Banks are encouraged to focus on increasing non-interest income due to anticipated declines in net interest income [47][48] - Strategies include bundling services in retail banking, expanding payment services, and enhancing wealth management offerings [48][50][57] Investment Banking and Capital Markets - Capital market revenues are expected to rise due to a recovery in M&A activity and increased demand from private equity firms [65] - Banks are exploring unconventional methods to enhance service fee income, such as increasing contract termination fees [65] AI-Driven Banking Strategy Implementation - The adoption of AI technologies is projected to significantly enhance profitability in the banking sector, with potential profits reaching $2 trillion by 2028 [69] - Banks must address technological debt to fully leverage AI capabilities and modernize their infrastructure [70][71]