消费行业研究：12月社零超预期，家电等耐用品高增，可选及餐饮偏弱

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the consumer sector, particularly in durable goods such as home appliances and communication devices, driven by government subsidies and replacement cycles [1][3]. Core Insights - December retail sales exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, surpassing the consensus forecast of 3.49%. Excluding automobiles, retail sales grew by 4.2% [1][3]. - Durable goods, particularly home appliances, showed significant growth, with home appliance sales increasing by 39.3% year-on-year in December. Communication devices also saw a 14% increase [1][3][9]. - The report highlights a shift in consumer spending, with essential goods like food and beverages showing mixed results, while discretionary spending remains weak [1][10]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - December retail sales grew by 3.7% year-on-year, with total retail sales for the year increasing by 3.5%. The growth in retail sales was primarily driven by durable goods [1][3][21]. - The year 2024 is projected to see a 5.3% increase in per capita disposable income and spending, with service consumption rising by 7.4% [1][3]. Durable Goods - Home appliances and communication devices benefited from government subsidies and replacement cycles, with home appliance sales up 39.3% in December. The automotive sector saw a slowdown, with a 0.5% increase in December [1][9][15]. - The report notes that the government subsidy program has expanded, allowing for more categories of appliances to qualify for rebates, which is expected to further boost sales [10][15]. Essential Goods - Essential goods showed varied performance, with food and beverage sales increasing by 9.9%, while beverage sales declined by 8.5%. Tobacco sales increased by 10.4% [10][12]. - The report indicates that the early timing of the Spring Festival in 2025 is expected to accelerate demand for essential goods like tobacco and alcohol [10][12]. Discretionary Goods - Discretionary spending remains weak, with clothing and cosmetics showing declines of 0.3% and 0.8% respectively in December. However, sports and entertainment sectors maintained positive growth [11][12]. - The report emphasizes that the warm winter in 2024 has negatively impacted demand for clothing, while the sports and entertainment sectors continue to thrive [11][12]. Online Retail and Employment - Online retail growth slowed slightly, with a year-on-year increase of 6.5% in December. The logistics sector also saw significant growth, with express delivery volumes increasing by 21% [21][23]. - Employment indicators remained stable, with the service sector's business activity index rising to 52.0, indicating a healthy economic environment [23].