Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD US, with a target price raised from 60, indicating a potential upside of 53.8% [1][6][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights the positive impact of the trade-in policy, which is expected to continue benefiting JD's sales in the electronics category. Revenue and profit forecasts for Q4 2024 have been raised by 3% and 12%, respectively. The company is projected to maintain healthy profit growth in 2025, supported by a 13x P/E ratio for 2025 [1][6][7]. - The anticipated total revenue for Q4 2024 is expected to reach RMB 334 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, which is 3% higher than previous estimates and 2% above Bloomberg consensus [6][7]. - Adjusted net profit for Q4 2024 is projected at RMB 9.5 billion, a 13% increase year-on-year, also revised up by 12% from earlier forecasts [6][7]. Financial Forecast Adjustments - Total revenue estimates for 2024 and 2025 have been adjusted upward by 0.9% and 0.7%, respectively, while net profit estimates have been increased by 2.3% and 2.8% for the same years [5][6]. - The report anticipates that JD's retail revenue will outperform social retail growth in 2025, with continued healthy profit growth and shareholder returns [6][7]. Revenue Breakdown - For 2024, product sales revenue is expected to be RMB 917.2 billion, with a growth rate of 5.6%. The electronics category is projected to generate RMB 556.2 billion, reflecting a 10%+ year-on-year increase [5][6][7]. - The report also details revenue contributions from various segments, including service revenue and logistics, indicating a diversified income stream [5][6][7]. Market Performance - JD's stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 12.49%, with a 52-week high of 21.44, reflecting strong market interest [4][6].
京东：以旧换新利好持续，上调收入及利润预测