BIDU(BIDU) 交银国际证券·2025-01-21 07:46Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu (BIDU US) with a target price of 82.92 [1][4][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Baidu's core advertising revenue is expected to improve gradually starting from Q1 2025, with a potential year-on-year growth in the second half of 2025 due to the commercialization of AI search [2][6]. - The report anticipates that the Robotaxi RT6 model will significantly improve cost efficiency and accelerate the commercialization of autonomous driving applications [2]. - The financial forecasts for Baidu show a slight decrease in revenue growth rates for 2024 and 2025, with total revenue expected to be RMB 132.517 billion in 2024 and RMB 133.733 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.5% and 0.8% respectively [3][16]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for Baidu are as follows: - 2024E: RMB 132,517 million - 2025E: RMB 133,733 million - 2026E: RMB 140,750 million - The core business revenue is expected to be RMB 104,098 million in 2024, RMB 105,599 million in 2025, and RMB 110,360 million in 2026 [3][7]. - Adjusted operating profit is forecasted to be RMB 25,946 million in 2024, RMB 25,193 million in 2025, and RMB 27,244 million in 2026, with corresponding operating profit margins of 19.6%, 18.8%, and 19.4% respectively [3][8][16]. Stock Performance - Baidu's stock has shown a year-to-date change of -1.65% and has a market capitalization of approximately 115.13 and $77.43 respectively, indicating a significant range of price movement over the past year [6][14]. Conclusion - The report emphasizes the potential for revenue recovery driven by AI search commercialization and the expansion of autonomous driving services, while also noting the challenges in the advertising sector due to cautious spending in certain industries [2][6][7].