钢铁行业春节前瞻系列报告：深化供给侧结构性改革，钢价小幅回升

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the steel industry, indicating that leading companies in the ordinary steel sector are likely to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics and policy support [5][74]. Core Insights - The steel market has seen a slight price recovery, with various steel prices experiencing marginal increases due to ongoing supply-side production controls and low inventory levels [5][74]. - The China Iron and Steel Association emphasized the need for deepening supply-side structural reforms and highlighted five key areas of focus for the industry moving forward [17][19]. Weekly Market Trends - The steel sector index increased by 3.34% over the week, outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 2.31% [9][11]. - All three sub-sectors of the steel industry (special steel, pipe materials, and plate materials) reported gains, with special steel leading at 4.89% [11][15]. Price Analysis - As of January 17, 2025, the average price of rebar was 3,451.0 CNY/ton, up by 0.42% from the previous week, while hot-rolled plate prices rose by 0.91% to 3,514.6 CNY/ton [24][30]. - The average price of iron ore also saw a slight increase, with the Platts iron ore price index averaging 101.3 USD/ton, up by 4.28% [30]. Supply and Inventory Trends - Steel production decreased, with key steel enterprises reporting a reduction in steel output to 1,899.0 million tons, down by 275.0 million tons from the previous ten days [41]. - As of January 16, 2025, rebar social inventory was 3.007 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 36.03% [43]. Profitability Analysis - The profitability of various steel products has shown signs of recovery, with rebar margins improving by 34 CNY/ton to approximately -25 CNY/ton [57].