社会服务行业24年业绩前瞻：结构分化，看好教育、OTA业绩趋势

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the social services industry [3] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a structural differentiation within the social services industry, with a positive outlook on the performance trends of education and Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) [1][10] - The tourism sector is expected to benefit from a rational return of travel demand, particularly in outbound tourism and international business driving OTA performance growth [10] - Education demand remains resilient, while human resources services are anticipated to face pressure due to macroeconomic conditions [13][14] - The duty-free sector is under short-term pressure, with a focus on the effects of new policies for city stores [16] Summary by Sections 1. Tourism and Travel - Domestic travel demand is stabilizing, with a year-on-year increase of 15.3% in travel volume for the first three quarters of 2024, and a 10.2% increase in civil aviation passenger volume in Q4 [10] - OTAs are expected to benefit from the recovery of outbound tourism, with Ctrip projected to achieve a revenue of 524 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.7% [11] - The scenic area operator, SanTe Cableway, is expected to maintain revenue while achieving a net profit growth of 30%-50% [12] 2. Education and Human Resources - The K12 education sector shows strong demand, with New Oriental expected to see a revenue increase of 25%-28% in Q2 2025 [13] - Human resources services are under pressure due to a weak macroeconomic environment, with Beijing Human Resources projected to achieve a revenue of 108 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.7% [15] 3. Duty-Free - The duty-free market is facing challenges, with sales in Hainan expected to decline by 29% year-on-year to 30.9 billion yuan [16] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor the effects of new policies on city stores, as many have not yet commenced operations [16] 4. Industry Data - In December 2024, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 45,172 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [17] - The report notes a decline in key hotel performance indicators, with occupancy rates and average daily rates expected to decrease in 2024 [28][32] 5. Market Trends - The social services sector saw a weekly increase of 6.4%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 4.3 percentage points, driven by government measures to boost cultural and tourism consumption [57]