【市场聚焦】海外宏观:特朗普2.0时代对商品可能的政治风险

Group 1: Political and Economic Context - Trump officially began his second term as the 47th President of the United States on January 20, 2025, marking the start of the "Trump 2.0" era[1] - Key policy proposals include tax cuts, increased tariffs, immigration restrictions, and adjustments to energy policies, which will significantly impact the U.S. economy and global commodity markets[1] - The 2025 U.S.-China trade conflict is expected to differ from the 2018 trade war in terms of background, focus, objectives, and pace[1] Group 2: Trade Conflict Phases - The trade conflict is anticipated to evolve through four phases: 1. Negotiations in Q1 2025, focusing on China's unfulfilled commitments from 2020-2021, with potential tariffs rising to 60%[1] 2. Tariff negotiations before April 29, 2025, during the "Hundred Days" policy period[1] 3. Intensification of trade tensions in Q3 2025, with tariffs potentially reaching 60% on over $300 billion of goods[1] 4. A new trade agreement expected post the November 2026 midterm elections[1] Group 3: Commodity Market Impacts - Trump's tax cuts are projected to stimulate domestic demand, positively affecting commodity prices[9] - Increased tariffs will likely lead to higher import costs, resulting in input inflation and overall inflationary pressures in the U.S.[10] - The reduction in immigration is expected to tighten the labor market, potentially increasing wages and service-related inflation[11] Group 4: Geopolitical Considerations - The resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict may lead to reduced sanctions on Russia, increasing global supply of various commodities[15] - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are expected to rise, which could create volatility in commodity markets[15] Group 5: Global Trade Dynamics - The trend of de-globalization is expected to continue, with trade growth lagging behind economic growth, leading to a decline in the share of trade in GDP[50] - The U.S. is projected to increase tariffs significantly, with an estimated 5 percentage point rise in overall tariffs and a 25 percentage point increase on China[51]