销售端持续改善，供给端有待修复

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [9] Core Viewpoints - The sales side continues to improve, while the supply side remains to be repaired. The report anticipates that urban village renovation and the revitalization of existing properties and land reserves will be crucial supports for stabilizing the real estate market in 2025 [4][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Side: Continued Pressure on Investment Starts, Old Renovation and Land Reserves May Provide Support - In 2024, the cumulative national real estate development investment was CNY 100,280 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.6%, with the decline expanding by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [13][20]. - The cumulative new construction area was 73,893 million square meters, down 23.0% year-on-year, with the decline remaining stable compared to the previous month [22]. - The cumulative completion area was 73,743 million square meters, down 27.7% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous month [25]. 2. Sales Side: Continuous Narrowing of Year-on-Year Decline, Structural Price Increase - The cumulative sales area of commercial housing in 2024 was 97,385 million square meters, down 12.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous month [14][29]. - The cumulative sales amount was CNY 96,750 billion, down 17.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [29]. - In December 2024, the sales area was 11,267 million square meters, down 0.5% year-on-year, while the sales amount was CNY 11,625 billion, up 2.4% year-on-year [14][29]. 3. Funding Side: Continuous Narrowing of Funding Decline, Sales Recovery Improves Cash Flow - The cumulative funding for real estate development enterprises was CNY 107,661 billion, down 17.0% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing for nine consecutive months [15][39]. - In December 2024, the funding was CNY 11,086 billion, down 7.1% year-on-year [15][39]. - The sources of funding showed declines in deposits and prepayments, personal mortgage loans, and domestic loans, with the declines narrowing further [15][39]. 4. Investment Recommendations: Continuous Focus on Leading State-Owned Enterprises and Improvement-Oriented Real Estate Companies - The report suggests focusing on leading state-owned enterprises and improvement-oriented real estate companies with strong land acquisition capabilities in core urban areas, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and others [4][16][50].