社会服务业年报业绩前瞻：酒店及景区表现分化，终端零售承压

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the social services industry, indicating expectations for the sector to outperform the overall market [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong recovery in domestic tourism demand, with a projected 17.9% year-on-year increase in total spending by domestic tourists in the first three quarters of 2024 [4]. - The hotel industry is experiencing a significant increase in new openings, with 37,000 new hotels expected to open in 2024, nearing 95% of the total openings in 2023 [4]. - The report identifies a divergence in performance among key companies in the tourism and hospitality sectors, with some companies expected to show strong growth while others may face declines [4]. Summary by Sections Tourism Attractions - Jiuhua Tourism is expected to achieve revenue of 750 million yuan in 2024, a 4% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 181 million yuan, also up 4% [4]. - Huangshan Tourism is projected to maintain revenue at 1.93 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit decline of 29% to 299 million yuan [4]. - Changbai Mountain is forecasted to see a 22% revenue increase to 755 million yuan, with a net profit of 173 million yuan, up 25% [4]. - Songcheng Performing Arts is expected to achieve a revenue of 2.6 billion yuan, a 35% increase, and turn a profit with a net profit of 1.1 billion yuan [4]. Hotels - Huazhu is projected to generate 23.73 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, an 8% increase, with a net profit of 3.93 billion yuan, down 4% [4]. - Jinjiang Hotels is expected to see a slight revenue decline to 14.55 billion yuan, but a net profit increase of 13% to 1.13 billion yuan [4]. - The report notes that brand and chain hotel development is a key trend in the industry [4]. Duty-Free - China Duty Free is expected to see a revenue decline of 16% to 56.49 billion yuan, with a net profit drop of 37% to 4.26 billion yuan [4]. - Wangfujing is projected to face a significant net profit decline of 51%-63% [4]. Exhibition - The overseas market demand is rising, with Miaowei Exhibition expected to see a revenue decrease of 8% to 765 million yuan [4]. - Lansheng Co. is projected to achieve a revenue increase of 5% to 1.5 billion yuan [4]. Human Resources Services - The human resources service industry is expected to grow steadily, with Keri International projected to achieve 11.51 billion yuan in revenue, an 18% increase [4]. - Beijing Human Resources is expected to see a revenue decline of 9% to 432.33 billion yuan, but a net profit increase of 57% to 8.62 billion yuan [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Miaowei Exhibition, Keri International, Jiuhua Tourism, Songcheng Performing Arts, and Huazhu for potential investment opportunities [4].