2024年中国人口概况分析与趋势判断

Population Overview - By the end of 2024, China's population is projected to decrease to 1,407.01 million, a reduction of 2.65 million from the previous year[2][8] - The estimated number of births in 2024 is approximately 8.48 million, with a birth rate of 6.03‰[2][8] - The estimated number of deaths in 2024 is around 11.13 million, resulting in a death rate of 7.91‰[2][8] Demographic Trends - The urbanization rate is expected to rise to 66.91%, an increase of 0.75 percentage points year-on-year[2][8] - The labor force aged 16-59 years comprises 61.3% of the total population, while the elderly population (60 years and above) accounts for 21.1%[5] Economic Implications - A declining population may lead to increased resource efficiency and improved living standards due to higher per capita resource availability[9] - However, a shrinking consumer market could hinder economic growth and reduce domestic demand, posing challenges for labor-intensive industries[9] Employment Insights - The national urban unemployment rate averaged 5.2%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous year[6] - The unemployment rate for youth aged 16-24 is notably high at 14.9%, indicating potential challenges for this demographic in the job market[6] Risks and Considerations - The analysis is subject to uncertainties, including data accuracy and potential policy changes that could impact demographic trends[3][10] - Future research should incorporate additional factors such as education levels and healthcare advancements to enhance the robustness of the analysis[10]