BILIBILI(BILI) 交银国际证券·2025-01-23 01:52Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Bilibili (BILI US), with a target price adjusted to 17.05 [1][2][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the gaming revenue is in line with expectations and expresses optimism about the potential for profit release. The company has achieved profitability, leading to a switch to PEG valuation based on comparable entertainment and gaming companies [1][6]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 has been slightly reduced by 3% to RMB 1.87 billion, while the revenue growth for 2025 is expected to be 19% for advertising and 9% for gaming [6][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of revenue structure optimization and ongoing cost control to enhance profitability over the long term [6][9]. Financial Forecasts - The revenue projections for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are RMB 26,716 million, RMB 29,688 million, and RMB 31,936 million respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 43% for adjusted net profit from 2025 to 2027 [5][14]. - The report anticipates a gross margin of 36% for Q4 2024, with adjusted operating profit expected to reach RMB 4 billion [6][9]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 29.66 and a low of $8.94 [4][12]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue breakdown for Q4 2024E includes mobile games at RMB 1,768 million, value-added services (VAS) at RMB 2,989 million, and advertising revenue at RMB 2,389 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24% for advertising [9][14]. - The report notes that the gaming segment is expected to contribute significantly to revenue, with a projected increase in revenue from games in 2025 [6][9]. Market Position - Bilibili is positioned favorably within the entertainment content sector, with a competitive edge in gaming and advertising, supported by product optimization and marketing strategies [1][6][12]. - The report suggests that the stock price has limited downside potential, reinforcing the "Buy" rating based on the company's growth prospects and market dynamics [1][12].