深圳写字楼市场报告 2024年 Q4

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the Shenzhen Grade A office market, with expectations of continued downward pressure on rental prices and high vacancy rates in the upcoming quarters [2][3]. Core Insights - The Shenzhen Grade A office market experienced a significant increase in both supply and demand in Q4 2024, with new supply reaching approximately 118,595 square meters and net absorption at about 145,599 square meters, marking a recovery from previous lows [2][4]. - Average rental prices fell by 1.4% to RMB 159.1 per square meter per month, continuing a downward trend that has persisted for ten consecutive quarters [2][7]. - The overall vacancy rate decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 24.5%, indicating a mild recovery in the market despite ongoing challenges [2][4]. Supply and Demand - The supply side saw the introduction of over 11,000 square meters from the China Venture Capital Building, pushing the total stock of Grade A offices in Shenzhen past 10 million square meters for the first time [13][20]. - The demand was primarily driven by the TMT sector, professional services, and manufacturing, with TMT accounting for 29.3% of the total demand [13][14]. - The report highlights that relocation demand remains dominant, while new establishment demand constituted 32.4% of the market transaction area [14]. Rental Trends - The average rental price for Grade A offices in Shenzhen has been on a downward trajectory, with a cumulative decline of 10 quarters, reflecting ongoing market adjustments [7][9]. - Specific submarkets like Futian CBD and Chegongmiao showed slight rental increases of 1.1% and 2.7%, respectively, while other areas, particularly Qianhai, experienced the largest decline of 6.3% due to new supply [10][11]. Market Outlook - Looking ahead to Q1 2025, the report anticipates continued pressure on rental prices and vacancy rates due to the influx of new supply and the lack of significant demand drivers [3][16]. - The overall economic environment and market confidence remain weak, which may hinder demand growth and exacerbate the challenges faced by the market [16][17]. Investment Market - The report notes that there were no significant transactions in the bulk investment market during the quarter, with total transaction volume for the year dropping to approximately RMB 2.7 billion, a decline of over 50% year-on-year [17][18]. - The cautious approach of bulk buyers is attributed to ongoing economic uncertainties and the pressure on asset values due to declining rental incomes [17][18].