汽车行业：两会前瞻行业点评-25年汽车销量稳步增长，呈现前低后高走势

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry [1]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is expected to see steady growth in sales, with a projected increase in domestic passenger car sales to 23.25 million units in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.8% [3]. - The "old-for-new" policy is anticipated to significantly boost car sales, with an estimated 4-5 million vehicles being driven by this policy in 2025, accounting for 17.2%-21.5% of total sales [3]. - The report highlights a shift towards electric vehicles (EVs) and the impact of declining technology and research costs, which are expected to enhance the market share of EVs and benefit domestic brands and related supply chains [3]. Summary by Sections Market Trends - The report indicates that the automotive market will experience a "U-shaped" recovery in 2024, with a total of 22.61 million passenger cars sold, a 3.1% increase year-on-year [3]. - The "old-for-new" policy in 2024 led to over 6.8 million vehicle exchanges, with significant sales contributions from electric bicycles as well [3]. Policy Impact - The funding support for the "old-for-new" policy is set to double from 150 billion to 300 billion in 2025, which is expected to further stimulate sales [3]. - The report notes that the policy will expand its coverage, allowing for more vehicles to qualify for subsidies, thus increasing the potential market impact [3]. Technological Advancements - The transition towards smart and electric vehicles is reshaping consumer preferences and the automotive supply chain [3]. - The report mentions the growing recognition of Chinese automakers in the global market, with increasing collaborations between domestic companies and international automotive giants [3]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include BYD, Li Auto, and Geely for vehicle manufacturers, while companies like Huayu Automotive, Bertel, and Desay SV are highlighted in the smart components sector [4]. - In the new energy components sector, recommended stocks include Farah Electronics and Zhongrong Electric [4].