医药行业月报2025/01：创新药出海持续推进，BD交易金额创新高

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the pharmaceutical industry [1]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is experiencing a significant push in innovative drug development and international expansion, with BD transaction amounts reaching a historical high of $63.5 billion in 2024, a 22.59% increase from the previous year [3][15]. - The industry has underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a rolling P/E ratio of 29.53x as of January 22, 2025, compared to 12.30x for the CSI 300 [21]. - The report suggests that the pharmaceutical sector is poised for recovery, with structural opportunities remaining, particularly in innovative drugs and the industry chain [40]. Monthly Policy and Industry Updates - The 43rd JPMorgan Healthcare Conference showcased nearly 30 Chinese innovative drug companies, highlighting the continuous improvement in China's pharmaceutical R&D capabilities [6]. - The BD transaction amount for domestic pharmaceutical companies reached $63.5 billion in 2024, with a notable increase in high-value transactions, particularly in ADC and bispecific antibodies [15][19]. Industry Data Dynamics - The pharmaceutical industry has shown weaker performance compared to the CSI 300, with a decline of 23.53% in the SW pharmaceutical biotechnology index from early 2023 to January 22, 2025 [21]. - The revenue growth rate of the pharmaceutical manufacturing sector has slowed due to the pandemic's impact, but it remains above GDP growth [22]. - Outpatient expenses have risen significantly due to the pandemic, while inpatient costs have been effectively controlled [26]. - The total number of medical services and discharges has shown a significant recovery in 2024, indicating a rebound in healthcare demand [29]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the potential for recovery in the pharmaceutical sector, recommending a focus on innovative drugs and companies with strong growth prospects, such as Innovent Biologics, Kangfang Biopharma, and others [40][41]. - It highlights the importance of companies involved in the domestic replacement of medical equipment and those benefiting from the ongoing DRGs policy [40].