纺织服装行业2024年信用回顾与2025年展望

Industry Investment Rating - The textile and apparel industry is rated as Stable for 2024 and 2025 [1] Core Views - Domestic sales in the textile and apparel industry continued to grow in 2024, but the growth rate slowed down, while exports showed signs of recovery [2] - The industry faces challenges due to weak domestic and external demand, as well as complex international trade conditions [2] - Inventory levels in the industry increased in 2024, but the pace of restocking was moderate due to weak consumer confidence [2] - Raw material prices fluctuated in 2024, initially rising and then falling, influenced by supply-demand dynamics and energy price changes [2] - Labor costs continued to rise, leading to a shift of production bases and orders to Southeast Asia [2] - The industry is undergoing a transformation towards high-end, intelligent, and green development, supported by recent policies [2] Industry Performance Revenue and Profit - In 2023, the textile industry's revenue was 2,287.91 billion yuan, down 1.6% YoY, while the apparel industry's revenue was 1,210.47 billion yuan, down 5.4% YoY [8] - In 2024 (Jan-Nov), the textile industry's revenue grew by 4.0% YoY, and the apparel industry's revenue grew by 2.6% YoY [8] - In 2023, the textile industry's profit increased by 5.9% YoY, while the apparel industry's profit decreased by 3.4% YoY [10] - In 2024 (Jan-Nov), the textile industry's profit grew by 4.6% YoY, and the apparel industry's profit grew by 3.9% YoY [10] Production - In 2023, the textile industry's capacity utilization rate was 76.37%, down 0.83 percentage points YoY [18] - In 2024 (Jan-Nov), the textile industry's capacity utilization rate rose to 78.3%, up 1.9 percentage points YoY [18] - In 2024 (Jan-Nov), yarn, fabric, and apparel production increased by 0.3%, 1.0%, and 3.9% YoY, respectively [18] Domestic Sales - In 2023, retail sales of apparel, footwear, and textiles grew by 12.9% YoY, driven by the recovery of consumer activity [22] - In 2024 (Jan-Nov), retail sales of apparel, footwear, and textiles grew by 0.4% YoY, reflecting slower growth [22] Exports - In 2023, textile and apparel exports fell by 8.1% YoY, with textile exports down 8.3% and apparel exports down 7.8% [26] - In 2024 (Jan-Nov), textile and apparel exports grew by 2.0% YoY, with textile exports up 4.6% and apparel exports down 0.2% [26] Investment - In 2023, fixed asset investment in the textile industry fell by 0.4% YoY, while investment in the apparel industry fell by 2.2% YoY [28] - In 2024 (Jan-Nov), fixed asset investment in the textile industry grew by 16.2% YoY, and investment in the apparel industry grew by 18.2% YoY [28] Inventory - In 2023, the textile industry experienced a destocking cycle, with inventory levels declining from January to July [32] - In 2024, inventory levels in the textile and apparel industry increased, but the pace of restocking was moderate [32] Policy Environment - The industry is focusing on innovation, quality improvement, brand building, and sustainable development, with policies supporting high-end, intelligent, and green transformation [55] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" for the textile industry emphasizes technological innovation, brand development, and international market expansion [55] - The "Textile Industry Modernization Action Plan (2022-2035)" aims to increase the domestic market share of textile equipment to over 80% and develop 8-10 internationally renowned fashion brands [57] - The "Textile Industry Quality Improvement Implementation Plan (2023-2025)" targets a 1.3% R&D investment intensity and 70% digitalization rate among large-scale textile enterprises by 2025 [58] Sample Analysis Financial Performance - In 2023, the sample companies' total revenue was 2,814.24 billion yuan, up 2.05% YoY, while in 2024 (Jan-Sep), revenue was 2,071.15 billion yuan, up 3.64% YoY [67] - In 2023, the sample companies' net profit was 220.30 billion yuan, up 30.01% YoY, while in 2024 (Jan-Sep), net profit was 165.84 billion yuan, down 8.58% YoY [71] - In 2023, the sample companies' inventory turnover days decreased to 177.36 days, down 3.73 days YoY [75] Financial Leverage - As of September 2024, the sample companies' total assets were 4,812.00 billion yuan, down 0.99% YoY, while total liabilities were 1,903.96 billion yuan, down 3.76% YoY [110] - The debt-to-asset ratio of the sample companies was 39.57% as of September 2024, down 1.14 percentage points YoY [114] Cash Flow - In 2023, the sample companies' operating cash flow was 426.34 billion yuan, up 76.26% YoY, while in 2024 (Jan-Sep), operating cash flow was 120.78 billion yuan, down 50.73% YoY [121] - In 2023, the sample companies' investment cash flow was -152.72 billion yuan, while in 2024 (Jan-Sep), it was -103.43 billion yuan [122] - In 2023, the sample companies' financing cash flow was -173.47 billion yuan, while in 2024 (Jan-Sep), it was -279.71 billion yuan [122]