美股策略：特朗普正式就任宽幅波动下的投资工具及常用技术指标的应用

Group 1 - The report reviews the economic performance during Trump's first term, highlighting that the average Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase was 0.16% monthly, with core CPI at 0.156%, indicating no significant inflation rise during his tenure [12][15] - The average unemployment rate during Trump's term was 5.0%, with a lower average of 3.95% when excluding the COVID-19 pandemic's impact, showing a stable employment situation [15][42] - Retail sales growth averaged 0.39% during Trump's term, with core retail sales at 0.50%, indicating a robust consumer market compared to previous administrations [19][20] Group 2 - The report indicates that the average earnings growth for S&P 500 companies during Trump's term was 7.33%, outperforming Obama's 5.09% but underperforming Biden's 11.71% [27] - The analysis of durable goods orders shows an average month-on-month change of 0.27% during Trump's term, suggesting a positive trend in corporate investment [23] - The report forecasts a strong earnings growth for S&P 500 companies in 2025, with an expected increase of 14.8%, driven by significant growth in the "Magnificent Seven" companies [47] Group 3 - The report discusses the impact of the U.S.-China trade war on the stock market, noting significant declines in the S&P 500 during key tariff announcements, with a maximum drop of 17.5% from September 2018 to December 2018 [32][33] - It highlights that the market's reaction to tariffs was significant, with adjustments in 2019 showing a rebound as the Federal Reserve shifted its stance [37] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring other countries' retaliatory measures against U.S. tariffs, as these could significantly affect market dynamics [37][38] Group 4 - The report suggests that 2025 will experience "wide fluctuations" in the stock market, driven by trade war narratives and sector rotations, particularly favoring traditional sectors like finance and real estate [51] - It recommends investors consider ETFs that focus on small-cap stocks, such as the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), as they may outperform large-cap stocks in a favorable economic environment [55] - The report also advises maintaining a diversified portfolio that includes bonds, gold, and cryptocurrencies to hedge against potential market downturns [51][56]