情绪价值系列报告：春节消费抢先看

Group 1: Consumer Sector Overview - The Hang Seng Index showed a generally upward trend in 2024, with a significant rebound starting from late August, although the consumer sector's growth rate lagged behind the overall market, particularly in Q2 [6] - The consumer sector's performance was characterized by a greater elasticity in non-essential consumption compared to essential consumption after the rebound [6] Group 2: Emotional Value Consumption - Emotional value consumption encompasses a wide range of activities beyond traditional goods, including travel, fitness, and luxury purchases, driven by societal phenomena such as "involution" and "anxiety" [8] - The approach to consumption is shifting towards valuing emotional connections and experiences, especially with the upcoming Spring Festival, which enhances gifting and entertainment demands [8] Group 3: Travel and Tourism Insights - The Ministry of Transport predicts a total of 9 billion person-trips during the 2025 Spring Festival, a 7% increase from the previous year, with operational passenger volume expected to reach 1.8 billion [12] - Domestic tourism revenue is projected to grow by 7% year-on-year during the Spring Festival, contributing approximately 10% to the annual tourism revenue [12] Group 4: Movie Market Analysis - The 2025 Spring Festival movie market is expected to see significant growth, with a notable increase in box office revenue compared to previous years, driven by popular films and ticket subsidies [35] - Major players in the online ticketing market, such as Maoyan and Alibaba Pictures, are anticipated to benefit from the rebound in box office performance [35] Group 5: Gold Market Dynamics - The first quarter is traditionally a peak season for gold consumption, with brands like Laopuhuang showing strong growth potential due to increasing brand influence and seasonal demand [37] - Laopuhuang's stock performance has been exceptional, with a 447% increase since its IPO, and it is expected to continue achieving significant revenue and profit growth [44][58] Group 6: Textile and Apparel Sector - The Chinese sports footwear market has shown robust growth, with a CAGR of 17.7% from 2015 to 2019, and is projected to reach a market size of 559.3 billion yuan by 2028 [62] - The market remains highly concentrated, with significant head effects observed among leading brands [64]