家电行业12月产业在线空调数据点评：空调内外销两旺，上游压缩机企业春节假期缩短

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the home appliance industry [1] Core Insights - The air conditioning market is experiencing strong domestic and export sales, with production and sales figures showing significant year-on-year growth [3] - The report highlights the impact of subsidy policies on domestic air conditioning sales, leading to increased average selling prices and a boost in demand [3] - Export performance is exceeding expectations, particularly in emerging markets, with notable growth in various regions [3] - The demand for central air conditioning remains robust, with exports showing strong growth despite a slight decline in domestic sales [3] - The report suggests investment in major players like Midea Group and Haier Smart Home, while also recommending attention to Hisense Home Appliances [3] Summary by Sections Air Conditioning Market - In December 2024, domestic air conditioning production reached 18.17 million units, a year-on-year increase of 33.7%, while sales were 17.46 million units, up 30% [3] - Domestic sales accounted for 7.36 million units, growing by 20.5%, and exports reached 10.1 million units, increasing by 37.9% [3] - The first quarter of 2025 is projected to see a total production of 56.52 million units, an 11% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [3] Domestic Sales and Pricing - The retail statistics indicate that air conditioning retail sales in 2024 experienced fluctuations, with a significant increase in the fourth quarter due to subsidy policies [3] - The average selling price of air conditioners has been rising, with online and offline prices increasing by 4.4% and 7.69% respectively in December 2024 [3] Export Performance - Air conditioning exports are expected to continue exceeding forecasts, driven by urbanization in emerging markets and high temperatures in summer 2024 [3] - The report notes that exports to various regions, including Asia and Latin America, have shown substantial year-on-year growth [3] Central Air Conditioning Demand - Domestic sales of central air conditioning were reported at 9.29 billion yuan in November, a slight decline of 0.5% year-on-year, while exports reached 2 billion yuan, up 31.7% [3] - The U.S. market for central air conditioning is anticipated to grow due to industrial investments, particularly in data center HVAC needs [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in Midea Group (000333.SZ) and Haier Smart Home (600690.SH), while suggesting to keep an eye on Hisense Home Appliances (000921.SZ) [3]